Posted by
EWRoss on Monday, November 02, 2009 7:00:00 AM
For an off-year election the
races of 2009 have stirred up a hornet's nest. Of special interest are the
gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the
special election in the 23rd District of New York. I addressed all three in
last week’s column.
As usual, the winners, most
likely the Republicans in at least two out of the three, will interpret the
results in broad national terms. The losers will remind us that all politics is
local. Both are correct. The trick for both parties is interpreting their
relative significance and applying lessons learned to the races to come in
2010.
More immediately, what message
will Tuesday's election results send to senators and representatives in
Congress who will vote on healthcare-reform legislation? Republicans hope that
victories in Virginia, New
Jersey, and New York
will send a powerful message to "vulnerable" House Democrats who all must
face reelection in 2010. Why else were Democrats in such a hurry to pass reform
legislation?
Tuesday's election results may
sway some votes in the House, but it would be folly for Republicans and
Americans opposed to current healthcare-reform legislation to invest too much
hope here. Nancy Pelosi's leverage with House Democrats is considerable. I
suspect the current bill before the house will pass. When that happens, the
ball will be in the Senate's court where the dreaded "public option"
has less support but likely will make to a floor vote.
Odds are that an amendment will
remove the public option from the Senate bill. What emerges from the conference
committee won't be everything Democrats wanted, but it may still be sweeping,
radical reform. Herein is the key to 2010 and 2012. If Democrats force through
healthcare-reform legislation that the majority of Americans abhor, they may
have signed their own pink slips.
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