Posted by
EWRoss on Monday, February 01, 2010 7:00:00 AM
China's
previous reactions to major US
arms sales to Taiwan
over the past 20 years have followed a pattern. They issue strongly worded
statements, warning of dire consequences. They break off military exchanges
(when they have existed). And they reiterate talking points, saying that the US is interfering in the internal affairs of China, threatening China's
national security, and, since President Ma Ying-jeou took office in Taiwan,
inhibiting China-Taiwan détente.
China also
has put pressure on US business with divisions that sell defense
equipment to Taiwan, although this has had limited effect as US companies are
in no position to refuse participation in government-to-government sales to
Taiwan through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) system.
In due course, however, US-China
relations have always returned to their own equilibrium. Economic
interdependence and political necessity constrain China
from allowing the Taiwan
issue to dominate the relationship.
Will this time be different? China's political and economic stature have
given it a self image of a world power equal to the United States. Chinese leaders may
see US economic dependence
on China's
willingness to purchase US Treasury Bonds as leverage they can and should use.
And they may believe that Barack Obama is a US President they can pressure.
Chinese leaders have demonstrated
in the past a willingness to subjugate national interest to national pride.
They could overplay their hand. More likely however, they won't. They know they
can't inflict pain on the US
without inflicting pain on themselves. Their economic growth is too dependent
on the US
market and, since 1949, China-Taiwan relations have never been better.
Read this week’s and Sidebar at http://ewross.com
Read Previous EWRoss at http://ewross.com/Sidebar.htm
Read Previous EWRoss weekly columns at http://ewross.com/archive.htm