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OBAMA'S MOSCOW TRIP

When President Barack Obama arrives in Moscow Monday for meetings with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, he will be under intense pressure to cancel US plans to build missile defense installations in Poland and the Czech Republic. The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) expires on Dec 5, and Medvedev will hold a new treaty hostage in exchange for Obama's concessions on missile defense in Europe. The Democratic left will encourage Obama to make those concessions. They've been opposed to missile defense from the outset, agreeing with those, including the Russians, who believe it's destabilizing and undercuts arms control agreements. But if Obama truly believes it's time to put Cold-War thinking behind us and face the realities and treats of the future, he won't negotiate away capabilities the US needs to defend and deter against Iranian ballistic missiles armed with nuclear weapons. Unless the US or Israel does something about Iran's nuclear weapons and missile programs, their far smaller arsenal will be a greater threat to US national security than Russia's because of the greater likelihood Iran would use them. How Obama reacts to Russian and left-wing pressure to abandon missile defense in Europe will tell the American people and our enemies much about how Obama intends to defend America.

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REGIME CHANGE

Just various pundits have observed this week, it’s difficult to see how President Obama can continue with his policy of engaging the senior Iranian leadership in direct discussions and negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program after the brutal crackdown on its own people. Any pretense of legitimacy the Government of Iran had and any hope Obama had of broad support for direct negotiations with Iran went out the window when it started shooting its own people.

It appears that President Obama is left with two options. He can do nothing and perhaps wait for Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, involving us, whether we like it or not, in a very dangerous situation. Or he can work with our friends and allies to impose strict sanctions on Iran while supporting the Iranian popular movement for regime change. The US is far more likely to garner support for such a policy from our European partners now than we have in the past. China and Russia, countries that on occasion shoot their own people when the get out of line, aren’t going to provide much help. The US will have to work outside the UN to achieve any success.
 
The popular uprising in Iran was a defining moment in the history of that ancient land. If it ultimately succeeds, and I believe it will, it also will be a defining moment in the history of the Middle East and the World. President Obama should stop rejecting everything and anything associated with President George W. Bush and his administration. On Iran, Bush had it right. A government in Iran that represents the people who took to the streets over the past two weeks is far more likely to negotiate in good faith with the US over Iran’s nuclear aspirations than the existing theocracy. The sooner it comes to power the safer we’ll all be.
 
Read my weekly columns and my current daily comment at http://ewross.com
Previous EWRoss Dailies http://ewross.com/EWRoss_Daily.htm
Previous EWRoss weekly columns http://ewross.com/archive.htm
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